Friday, June 25, 2004

Prediction Time

Andrew Coyne is taking predictions on the seat count for Monday's election. These are the numbers I submitted to Mark Steyn's Maple Mayhem! contest on May 27th, and since they're a hell of a lot more plausible now than they were then, I'm sticking with them:
Conservatives: 137
Liberals: 105
Bloc: 50
NDP: 15
Chuck Cadman: 1

Based on the latest poll projections, and the early posts on Mr. Coyne's website, I may be giving the Liberals a few seats that the Bloc and the NDP are likely to win. However, I don't see the Dippers hitting the 20 mark, simply because they are, as usual, likely to be obliterated in the strategic voting department (not that I believe that's ever that big a factor anyway). As well, I tend to agree with Coyne and Inkless that the Liberals will beat their polling numbers in Quebec.

Here in Lethbridge, Rick Casson (CPC) is going to win in a rout - he got 66% of the vote in 2000, when there was a PC candidate. Ken Nicol should finish a disappointingly weak (for his supporters) 2nd, with the NDP, Greens, and Christian Heritage Party in a rough tie for 3rd with 4-5% each.

I actually wouldn't be surprised at all if the Greens finished 3rd here (or if the NDP finished 5th); the more people I talk to, the more I hear that "protest votes" will be parking with the Green Party. Generally, it's people who support SSM and don't want to support the CPC, but cannot vote Liberal.


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