Thursday, September 09, 2004

Mathblogging!

This afternoon, in a 26-5 victory over the Detroit Tigers, the K.C. Royals got a major-league record 13 consecutive batters on base. How unlikely is that?

Well, the Royals average on-base percentage this season is .321, and .321 to the 13th power is (uh, mmm, carry the one): 0.000000384. Translated (inverted!), that means the odds of them getting 13 straight guys on base is 1 in 2,602,763.

Last year the Royals had about 6,100 plate appearances. So as I roughly calculate it, the next time they can send someone into the batter's box with the expectation that he will begin a similar 13-man streak is in about 426 years.

From another angle though, with from 10 to 30 teams in the leagues, it's hard to believe that this is the first time this has happened in 100+ years of the modern era.

That, of course, is if my math is right. I'm an engineer, not a flippin' math-whiz.

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