Wednesday, January 12, 2005

Typical

(Updated, to make sense)

Damian Brooks has kindly babbled (TM) that Jerry Aldini is underrated, or rather under-visited. I appreciate the compliment very much, and would like to announce that this is unlikely to change anytime soon. I'm not against more traffic, but I don't seem to follow many of the guidelines for increasing it. I haven't joined any Brigades, Carnivals, or the like. My blogroll is rather limited, probably unfairly so. I send about one email per month pointing to a post I've written. And, I don't post that frequently, or worse, regularly.

The real kicker though, at least in my fantasy world, is that every time I write something that gets some attention, I cleverly follow it up with (A) dead air, or (B) a post or two that are of absolutely no interest to new visitors that followed a "political" link.

So, on that note, welcome to anyone new who found this site via Let It Bleed or The Roadkill Diaries. Here's what you want to do regarding gambling on Super Bowl XXXIX:

For starters, if you feel really strongly about any particular team right now, you might as well make a bet today. You'll nearly triple your money even if it's the Steelers you successfully back, who by the way were 15-1 and haven't lost in 4 months. Here's the latest lines on the eight remaining teams, from your friendly Caribbean bookie:
  • +185 Pittsburgh Steelers
  • +275 Philadelphia Eagles
  • +320 New England Patriots
  • +375 Indianapolis Colts
  • +800 Atlanta Falcons
  • +2500 New York Jets
  • +2500 Minnesota Vikings
  • +2500 St. Louis Rams

That said, here's my Two-Step Plan for making lots of money betting on the Super Bowl:
1) Wait until after the conference championship games (i.e. until we know who is playing in the game). (If this sounds obvious to you, you obviously don't gamble much.)
2) Take the AFC team to win and cover the spread.
You're welcome!

OK, maybe some brief explanation is warranted. In short, this "advice" is not intended as blinding insight, but rather as a marker in time.

We're just past a 16-game regular season right now, and rightfully, the AFC looks fantastic. Their potential Super Bowl opponents are:
- two 8-8 teams who managed to win road playoff games against weak teams
- an 11-5 team who beat one good team all year, and it was at home by one point
- and the Eagles, who clinched everything 4 weeks ago, haven't been impressive in 6 weeks, lost their final two (meaningless) games by a combined score of 58-17, and whose co-MVP is injured and uncertain to return

However, in two weeks, the NFC champion will be a hot team on a 2, 3, or 5 game winning streak. Their defense will have made some big plays, their quarterback will look very dangerous (McNabb, Vick, Bulger, Culpepper), offense clicking on all cylinders, etc. etc.. The media, and to a lesser extent the oddsmakers, will be seduced, and the line will open with the AFC team favoured by a touchdown at most.

Luckily, the NFC champion will still be one of the 4 teams noted above, whereas the AFC champion will have won a half-dozen important games this year. Remember this post, take the AFC team, lay the points, double your money, and send me a thankyou note.

There is only one potential exception I can think of to this scenario, but this post is long enough already, so I'll get to it another day. Try guessing it, if you like.

3 Comments:

At 7:30 AM, Blogger Babbling Brooks said...

Hah! Switching from politics to sports to drum up more visits! I always knew deep down you were a traffic-whore! ;)

 
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